China and Taiwan spirits market to drastically decline in the short term
文/吳志彥
亞洲為全球首要烈酒消費區域，每年約可消耗掉200億瓶以上的各式烈酒，全球有近50% 比例的烈酒都在亞洲區域消耗掉，其中包含中國生產的白酒也在列，亞洲區消耗量指標性國家及地區，大致為中國、香港、日本、南韓、新加坡、印度、台灣等，其中台灣每年約莫有2千萬瓶左右的烈酒消耗量。
Globally Asia is a significant market for spirits consumption and sales, each year over 20 billion bottles of sprits (all types) are consumed, which is over 50% of the globally produced spirits volume, and this includes the Chinese liquor “baijiu”. The major markets of consumption include China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korean, Singapore, India and Taiwan, of which Taiwan annually has estimated 20 million bottles of spirits consumption.
隨著中國施行禁奢令(限制購買價格高昂的進口烈酒品項)對白蘭地市場造成強烈衝擊，以及塑化劑風波對中式烈酒消費的影響，中式白酒指標性的茅台股等應聲而倒，這種種效應也間接牽動亞洲的烈酒市場，短期內亞洲市場將可能出現明顯下滑，而歐洲進口烈酒的銷售，預料也在此區域受到相當大的阻力。
Following China’s anti-extravagance campaign and crackdown on extravagant consumption (the policy discourages officials from extravagant spending and displays of wealth including expensive spirits and liquor) has had major impact on Cognac market, adding on the plasticizer scandal in Chinese liquor, Maotai, one of the best known “baijiu” continues to plummet in stock value. The ripple effect from China has affected general spirits market in Asia, there will be drastic decrease of the market all around, and of course this includes the European imported spirits.
而台灣市場在過去一年來，經濟通貨膨脹大於實質GDP成長，無形中也降低了一般民眾的實質消費能力，使得經銷商庫存難以消化，進一步讓2013年下半年度市場銷售也亮起紅燈。台灣的烈酒市場是以高粱酒及威士忌為大宗，高粱酒市場規模隨著金門高粱酒營業額不斷攀升──金門酒廠2012年營業額達新台幣161億元(含中國市場10億元)，其他高粱酒品牌則約略為40億元，──已漸漸拉開與第二大烈酒消費品項威士忌的差距，雖然台灣政府陸續提高酒後駕車的罰款及刑罰，也造成短期間金門高粱銷售量的停滯，但金門高粱酒未來在中國市場的成長，將可預期。
Over the last year, Taiwan’s economic inflation exceeds the GDP growth, this has inadvertently reduced general public’s spending power, which as a result wholesalers have difficulty depleting their stock, the market in second half of 2013 will be at a standstill. Taiwan’s spirits and liquor market consists mainly of white spirit gao-liang and whiskies, gao-liang market continues to grow following Gin Men Gao Liang’s positive performance, (in 2012 Gin Men Gao Liang revenues over NT16.1Billion dollars, this includes 1 billion from China market); with other gao liang brands taking in around 4 billion. This has further increased the gap with the next biggest spirits volume – whisky. Although the Taiwanese government has increased penalty for drink driving, which in the short term has resulted in Gin Men Gao Liang’s sales to stagnate, but the future growth of Gin Men Gao Liang in China will be very positive.
威士忌在台灣市場向來是以英國為主要進口國，以財政部關稅總局2012年進口量顯示，有94%的威士忌來自於英國，且近幾年來仍持續小幅穩定成長，其中尤其以單一麥芽威士忌為明顯成長來源。
Whisky in Taiwan is imported mainly from England, according to Ministry of Finance Customs Administration, 2012 import figures show over 94% of the whiskies are from England, and this segment continues a positive growth trend, of which single malt whiskies has the most significant contribution to the growth.
在威士忌品牌上，麥卡倫威士忌因預防供過於求，採取配額制度，所以銷售量維持平盤；蘇格登威士忌與百富威士忌則有較大幅度成長；競爭較激烈的品牌區塊，如格蘭傑、格蘭利威、格蘭菲迪等，在市場還是處於苦戰的狀況。調和威士忌市場在這一年來，有許多新品牌的加入，使得同質性酒品價格競爭更為明顯，尤以威雀品牌在價格上失守最為明顯，紳藍威士忌也有小幅度的下滑，而約翰走路與仕高利達都還能守住基本盤。
Whisky brands like Macallan has maintained steady volume over the years mainly because they supply base on allocation (this is so they do not supply over the demand). Singleton and Balvenie on the other hand has experienced fast growth rate. But the most competitive segment are brands like Glenmorangie, Glenlivet, Glenfiddich, all of which continue to fight a tough battle. In terms of blended malt whiskies, there have been many new brands entering the market, making this a segment of many similar whiskies at even more competitive prices. An example would be Famous Grouse, which has lost their grounds on price. Prime Blue is also in decline yet Johnnie Walker and Scottish Leader have both maintained their base.
其他如伏特加、琴酒、蘭姆酒、利口酒、龍舌蘭及白蘭地，在台灣烈性酒市場上，並無明顯的變化，其中的伏特加雖在全球明顯成長，在台灣市場卻毫無動靜，這應是飲用習慣的問題；順帶一提，2012年進口台灣的伏特加，有20%是來自於中國的「伏特加」。而另一個值得關注的白蘭地市場，以軒尼詩最為積極，每年持續投入大筆預算試圖讓消費層年輕化，但似乎品牌知名度與銷售量並沒有成等比正長。
Then there are other spirits like vodka, gin, rum, liqueurs, tequila and brandy, which has no significant changes in Taiwan spirits market. Even though vodka is growing on a global scale, in Taiwan there hasn’t been any impact, this is probably attributed to the consumption behavior of the local market. And interestingly, in 2012 Taiwan imported vodka consists of 20% coming from “vodka” in China. Lastly, it will be notable to observe the brandy market, with Hennessy most active investing heavily to recruit younger consumers, but so far it seems brand awareness and volume hasn’t grown proportionally with the investment.